Monday, February 21, 2011

Earthquake prediction

Ordinary people as well as seismologists have observed that, in some cases, major earthquakes occur shortly after certain anomalous events, which they then have claimed can be used for earthquake prediction.The hazards of earthquakes are avoidable if prediction can be made early, which wouldenable their mitigation, reduce damage to life and property drastically and facilitate precautionary measures.This attempt aims at establishing planetary configurations as a definitive means of earthquake prediction.
The occurrence of earthquake is a chaotic process.Scientific earthquake predictions should state where, when, how big, and how probable the predicted event is, and why the prediction is made.
Because of their devastating potential, there is great interest in predicting the location and time of large earthquakes. Although a great deal is known about where earthquakes are likely to occur, there is currently no reliable way to predict the exact time that an event will occur in any specific location.One of the earliest reported such premonitory signs is the anomalous behavior of animals.
Animals living within seismically active regions are subjected episodically to intense ground shaking that can kill individuals through burrow collapse, egg destruction, and tsunami action. Although anecdotal and retrospective reports of animal behavior suggest that although many organisms may be able to detect an impending seismic event, no plausible scenario has been presented yet through which accounts for the evolution of such behaviors.A brief review of possible seismic precursors suggests that tilt, hygroreception (humidity), electric, and magnetic sensory systems in animals could be linked into a seismic escape behavioral system. Several testable predictions of this analysis are discussed, and it is recommended that additional magnetic, electrical, tilt, and hygro-sensors be incorporated into dense monitoring networks in seismically active regions.
Probabilistic ground motion maps contour earthquake ground motions that have a common probability of being exceeded in a certain period of time. They are based on historical earthquake locations and geological information on the recurrence rate of fault ruptures, and assume that the historical trends can be projected into the future.

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